{"code":20000,"message":"OK","data":{"asset_tags":[{"key":"waihui","name":"外汇","ancestor_paths":["zichan"],"banner_key":"waihui"},{"key":"zhaiquan","name":"债券","ancestor_paths":["zichan"],"banner_key":"zhaiquan"}],"audio":{"title":""},"audio_info":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/57d9322b-ae13-462b-a658-a0a15a6069e5.mp3","start_time":"0.000000","duration":"162.072000","size":"486261"},"audio_uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/57d9322b-ae13-462b-a658-a0a15a6069e5.mp3","author":{"article_count":3168,"author_kind":"default","avatar":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/43c4174b-e19c-4547-a5b7-099185e38514","bio":"","display_name":"曹泽熙","editor_choice_articles":[],"followers_count":8878,"id":120000001236,"is_followed":false,"uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/authors/120000001236"},"categories":[{"key":"global","name":"见闻首页"},{"key":"forex","name":"外汇"},{"key":"bonds","name":"债券"},{"key":"wscn-platform","name":"见闻"}],"columns":[{"id":1005118,"key":"quanqiuhongguanjingji","name":"全球宏观经济","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/columns/1005118"},{"id":1005123,"key":"ouzhoujingji","name":"欧洲经济","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/columns/1005123"},{"id":1005126,"key":"ouzhouyangxingyouqingkuang","name":"欧洲央行有情况","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/columns/1005126"},{"id":1007286,"key":"quanqiuyangxingdongtaitixing","name":"全球央行动态提醒","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/columns/1007286"},{"id":1005137,"key":"dezhai","name":"欧洲债市","uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/columns/1005137"}],"comment_count":0,"comment_disabled":false,"content":"\u003cp\u003e2月27日周一，市场交易员首次押注欧洲央行将把加息周期延长至2024年，这导致德债遭到抛售，收益率升至多年高位。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e掉期市场定价显示，他们曾短暂押注欧洲央行将在2024年2月将存款利率上调至3.9%。就在几周前，货币市场交易员还押注今年7月利率将达到3.5%左右的峰值。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e周一德国10年期国债收益率报收2.578%，至2011年以来的最高水平，而30年期德国国债收益率则达到2014年以来的最高水平。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg class=\" wscnph\" src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/ca6ee02d-0a1a-4f56-9aa0-9299a1d85ec3.png\" data-wscntype=\"image\" data-wscnh=\"764\" data-wscnw=\"1161\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e市场分析认为，这一突然转变是由一系列强劲的美国消费者价格和增长数据引发的，这些数据促使交易员也重新关注欧洲居高不下的通胀。市场预计，本周四公布的数据可能会显示欧元区2月份的核心通胀率维持在创纪录的5.3%。欧洲央行依然维持2%的通胀目标。当前，欧洲央行已经将基准利率从-0.5%上调至2.5%，欧洲央行官员誓言继续上调基准利率以遏制通胀。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e高盛的债券策略分析师称，商业活动和核心通胀指标显示“欧洲经济的持续韧性”。 他们预计10年期德国国债收益率将在未来几周内从2.57%升至他们预测的2.75%。 \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e高盛称：\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e接下来重点要关注的是企业、家庭的贷款状况和正在进行的工资谈判，这些数据能够显示出欧洲经济是否正在充分放缓，从而使通胀回到目标水平。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，欧洲央行很可能会在下个月开会时继续实施加息50个基点的计划。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOstrum Asset Management SA固定收益策略师Axel Botte表示：\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e任何强硬的迹象都会激发进一步收紧政策的预期，而高于5%的核心通胀率也将成为继续收紧政策的有力论据。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e本月早些时候，欧洲央行两大官员放鹰，警告市场低估了通胀持续的风险，表示需要采取更有力的行动来控制通胀。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e欧洲央行执委Isabel Schnabel称：\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e欧央行距离宣称在通胀方面取得胜利还相去甚远，广泛的通货下降过程甚至还没有开始。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e较弱的政策传导性可能需要更有力的行动，在几乎所有情境下，3月份加息50个基点都是需要的。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e同一天，欧央行管委兼法国央行行长Villeroy de Galhau也表达了相似的观点，其指出目前通胀增速过快，且可能会持续发展下去。利率水平和持续时间比（加息）速度更重要，欧洲央行必须尽可能长时间地保持高利率。 \u003c/p\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"color: #666; margin-bottom: 15px;\"\u003e风险提示及免责条款\u003c/div\u003e\n          \u003cdiv style=\"font-size: 12px;font-family: 黑体;color: #666;line-height: 20px;\"\u003e\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。\n          \u003c/div\u003e\n","content_short":"掉期市场定价显示，交易员们曾短暂押注欧洲央行将在2024年2月将存款利率上调至3.9%。德国10年期国债收益率2.578%，至2011年以来的最高水平，而30年期德国国债收益率则达到2014年以来的最高水平。","custom_tag":"","display_time":1677535352,"funds":null,"has_transfer_audio":true,"id":3682899,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/c1b1df8f-ece3-41b9-9865-1668829aaeb0.jpeg","height":528,"width":792,"size":268536},"images":[{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/content_default_17.jpg","height":1667,"width":2500,"size":2005645}],"influence_score":0,"is_need_pay":false,"is_priced":false,"is_trial":false,"is_video":false,"layout":"wscn-layout","limited_time":0,"membership_uri":"","next":{"id":3682896,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/fcde3a9c-f6dc-4b08-bcdc-7adeb79a0eb7.jpeg","height":449,"width":1024,"size":90066},"title":"华尔街见闻早餐FM-Radio｜2023年2月28日","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3682896"},"pageviews":3591,"plates":[],"previous":{"id":3682886,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/d819a905-a9f1-440d-ba07-e854a1b79ce1.jpeg","height":406,"width":715,"size":267359},"title":"惨烈一周后美股反弹，美债收益率和美元冲高回落，马斯克重回全球首富","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3682886"},"related_topics":[],"show_like":true,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","subtitle":"","tags":[],"theme_group_map":null,"themes":[{"key":"quanqiuhongguanjingji","name":"全球宏观经济"},{"key":"ouzhoujingji","name":"欧洲经济"},{"key":"ouzhouyangxingyouqingkuang","name":"欧洲央行有情况"},{"key":"quanqiuyangxingdongtaitixing","name":"全球央行动态提醒"},{"key":"dezhai","name":"欧洲债市"}],"title":"首次！市场预期欧央行将加息到2024年，德债收益率飙升至2011年来新高","unshow_content_short":false,"words_count":753}}