{"code":20000,"message":"OK","data":{"asset_tags":[{"key":"zhaiquan","name":"债券","ancestor_paths":["zichan"],"banner_key":"zhaiquan"}],"audio":{"title":""},"audio_info":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a4d581f6-b9c2-4c3f-95de-5903c50d3f61.mp3","start_time":"0.000000","duration":"141.588000","size":"424809"},"audio_uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a4d581f6-b9c2-4c3f-95de-5903c50d3f61.mp3","author":{"article_count":7229,"author_kind":"default","avatar":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/08507e99-88ee-4368-b332-c44def86720c","bio":"","display_name":"赵颖","editor_choice_articles":[],"followers_count":8785,"id":120000004514,"is_followed":false,"uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/authors/120000004514"},"categories":[{"key":"global","name":"见闻首页"},{"key":"bonds","name":"债券"},{"key":"wscn-platform","name":"见闻"}],"columns":[],"comment_count":0,"comment_disabled":false,"content":"\u003cp\u003e现在就断言金融动荡已经结束为时尚早，银行业危机将拖累全球经济增长。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e国际货币基金组织（IMF）在周二发布的半年度金融稳定报告中警告：\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e虽然决策者在应对一系列银行倒闭方面采取了有力行动，但金融市场仍然脆弱且压力重重。银行业的压力可能会影响更广泛的信贷条件，从而拖累经济增长，\u003cstrong\u003e预计最近银行股的大幅下跌可能会导致美国和欧元区的经济增速下降近0.5%。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e在金融稳定性难以维持的情况下，大量资本将流向美债、美元等避险资产，风险溢价大幅上升、市场信心丧失，预计这种情况下全球经济增长率约为1%，但这种可能性相对较低，约为15%。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e全球金融体系的韧性经受了严峻的考验，迄今所采取的措施是否足以充分恢复对市场和机构的信心，还有待观察。IMF在报告中列举了三大薄弱环节：\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e资产规模为100—3000亿美元之间的近9%的美国银行，如果被迫计提所持有的债券和其他证券的未实现损失，实际上资本明显不足。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e各国的商业地产市场似乎被严重高估，在最近的动荡之后，银行和其他贷款人有可能进一步收紧信贷。这可能会在信贷增长和资产价格之间形成一个“负反馈循环”，因为后者的下降可能会降低抵押品的价值。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e当6月强制性定向长期再融资操作到期时，欧洲央行可能需要向金融系统提供额外的流动性，一些南欧国家的银行可能没有足够的额外资金还款。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e这次银行业崩溃是各种脆弱因素组合在一起的表现，IMF解释称：\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e这些脆弱因素多年来一直潜伏在全球金融体系的表面之下，如今因各国央行为应对数十年来最严重的通胀大举加息而浮出水面。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e迅速的政策紧缩正导致金融风险格局发生根本性转变，资产配置、资产价格和市场环境正在调整，对市场结构、投资者和金融机构构成挑战。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e此外，IMF高级官员Tobias Adrian在一篇博文中指出，最近的动荡更类似于美国1980年代的储贷危机，目前投资者情绪过于乐观，当前全球股市估值过高，尤其是美国市场。\u003c/p\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"color: #666; margin-bottom: 15px;\"\u003e风险提示及免责条款\u003c/div\u003e\n          \u003cdiv style=\"font-size: 12px;font-family: 黑体;color: #666;line-height: 20px;\"\u003e\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。\n          \u003c/div\u003e\n","content_short":"IMF报告指出，银行业的压力可能会收紧信贷环境，从而拖累经济增长，或导致美国和欧元区的经济增速下降近0.5%。","custom_tag":"","display_time":1681267891,"funds":null,"has_transfer_audio":true,"id":3686269,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/54704f1e-bb8e-40c7-94ae-50e0c3e05101.jpeg","height":525,"width":792,"size":113511},"images":[{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/54704f1e-bb8e-40c7-94ae-50e0c3e05101.jpeg","height":525,"width":792,"size":113511}],"influence_score":0,"is_need_pay":false,"is_priced":false,"is_trial":false,"is_video":false,"layout":"wscn-layout","limited_time":0,"membership_uri":"","next":{"id":3686283,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/d4718b08-1e8d-4e3c-95b8-bae34d468b0f.jpeg","height":528,"width":792,"size":43124},"title":"白酒行业进入内卷时代？","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686283"},"pageviews":1443,"plates":[],"previous":{"id":3686272,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/e275bfe0-c5bc-4e71-8446-bd7104f2df15.jpeg","height":680,"width":1024,"size":46398},"title":"财报2023｜应对集采冲击，手握重金的健康元能否以“首仿药”扭转战局","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686272"},"related_topics":[],"show_like":true,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","subtitle":"","tags":[],"theme_group_map":null,"themes":[],"title":"IMF警告：银行业危机风波未平 或拖累全球经济增长","unshow_content_short":false,"words_count":689}}