{"code":20000,"message":"OK","data":{"asset_tags":null,"audio":{"title":""},"audio_info":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/423318fb-d704-409d-8a68-a1bd87e21b2b.mp3","start_time":"0.000000","duration":"133.092000","size":"399321"},"audio_uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/423318fb-d704-409d-8a68-a1bd87e21b2b.mp3","author":{"article_count":1936,"author_kind":"default","avatar":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dea2d49e-c68e-4aa3-8eb9-5fe940fc1d3d","bio":"   ","display_name":"常嘉帅","editor_choice_articles":[],"followers_count":1962,"id":120000004647,"is_followed":false,"uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/authors/120000004647"},"categories":[{"key":"global","name":"见闻首页"},{"key":"us-shares","name":"港美股"},{"key":"wscn-platform","name":"见闻"}],"columns":[],"comment_count":2,"comment_disabled":false,"content":"\u003cp\u003e随着欧美经济转向衰退成为定局，专业投资者正先行一步，将资金从银行等经济敏感型股票中转移出来，买入在衰退期韧性更好的防御型股票，如公用事业和消费股。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e美银汇编的数据显示，专注长线投资的基金经理已经将周期股的敞口削减至2008年以来的最低水平。此外，美银在4月对基金经理的调查显示，基金经理们正持有大量现金，债券相对股票的超配比例为2009年来最高，进一步凸显主动投资者对美国经济前景的悲观情绪。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e以Savita Subramanian为首的美银分析师在近期发布的报告中指出，\u003cstrong\u003e专业投资者认定一场“2009年式的衰退”将至。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg class=\" wscnph\" src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3449904a-ac06-4ece-81d3-421e1d91dbd4.png\" data-wscntype=\"image\" data-wscnh=\"611\" data-wscnw=\"870\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e这与去年的景象大相径庭：在美联储刚开始加息的阶段，尽管市场上也出现了经济衰退的警告，但大多数市场参与者都乐观地认为，美联储有能力让通胀迅速降温，主动型基金积极抄底周期股。但如今，这样的信心已经不复存在。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e唯一的例外是量化基金。下图显示了机构资金的分歧：\u003cstrong\u003e预见衰退即将到来的主动型投资者正在远离股票，而与此同时，得益于稳定的收益和市场波动性的下降，量化基金在最近几个月不断增持股票。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg class=\" wscnph\" src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/119e0184-0d63-4bf9-af9b-187e24d2bbc7.png\" data-wscntype=\"image\" data-wscnh=\"875\" data-wscnw=\"870\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e不过，标普500今年几度都未能突破关键的4200点阻力位，大盘缺乏进一步上涨的动力，量化基金的大规模买入或许无法持续。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg class=\" wscnph\" src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/9befbf7c-709e-427f-a8cb-55c7c6e61a8a.png\" data-wscntype=\"image\" data-wscnh=\"578\" data-wscnw=\"870\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e尽管好于预期的经济数据和企业盈利还在勉强支撑着股市。但考虑到信贷紧缩和通胀持续的长期影响，基本面转好的趋势也要打上一个问号，甚至美联储官员也预测从今年晚些时候开始会出现“温和的衰退”。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e不过，值得一提的是，\u003cstrong\u003e美银指出，过早转向防御仓位为经济衰退做准备，代价可能很高。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e经过对股票表现与经济增长之间关系的考察，Savita Subramanian团队发现，\u003cstrong\u003e10个周期性最强的行业在经济衰退前的六个月往往表现出色。直到衰退真的发生，防御型股票才开始大放异彩，并且，这些防御型股票的良好表现，通常在衰退周期结束前就会逆转。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"color: #666; margin-bottom: 15px;\"\u003e风险提示及免责条款\u003c/div\u003e\n          \u003cdiv style=\"font-size: 12px;font-family: 黑体;color: #666;line-height: 20px;\"\u003e\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。\n          \u003c/div\u003e\n","content_short":"大盘还在涨，但机构已经先跑了，基金经理们认定，一场“2009年式的衰退”将至。","custom_tag":"","display_time":1682995745,"funds":null,"has_transfer_audio":true,"id":3687830,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/fd2c1caa-885c-4f1f-abe4-026eb6ac2949.jpeg","height":540,"width":1024,"size":86770},"images":[{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/content_default_1.jpg","height":1364,"width":2048,"size":2186222}],"influence_score":0,"is_need_pay":false,"is_priced":false,"is_trial":false,"is_video":false,"layout":"wscn-layout","limited_time":0,"membership_uri":"","next":{"id":3687811,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8af6b510-4ec1-4453-b251-1accd7e11236.png","height":636,"width":1024,"size":913805},"title":"芒格：我和巴菲特是特殊时期的产物，投资的黄金时代已经结束","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687811"},"pageviews":2766,"plates":[],"previous":{"id":3687829,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1289c426-2b3d-40f1-9ef9-e2e77566cd02.jpeg","height":528,"width":792,"size":114646},"title":"半导体公司一季度成绩单：设备厂商逆势增长，消费电子芯片普遍承压","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687829"},"related_topics":[],"show_like":true,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","subtitle":"","tags":[],"theme_group_map":null,"themes":[],"title":"周期敞口创新低！美国基金经理们All In衰退？","unshow_content_short":false,"words_count":659}}