{"code":20000,"message":"OK","data":{"asset_tags":[{"key":"shangpin","name":"商品","ancestor_paths":["zichan"],"banner_key":"shangpin"},{"key":"zhaiquan","name":"债券","ancestor_paths":["zichan"],"banner_key":"zhaiquan"}],"audio":{"title":""},"audio_info":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/fe9b5295-dcb7-40f0-89e3-aa656dc309c4.mp3","start_time":"0.000000","duration":"186.336000","size":"559053"},"audio_uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/fe9b5295-dcb7-40f0-89e3-aa656dc309c4.mp3","author":{"article_count":6472,"author_kind":"default","avatar":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/08507e99-88ee-4368-b332-c44def86720c","bio":"","display_name":"赵颖","editor_choice_articles":[],"followers_count":8109,"id":120000004514,"is_followed":false,"uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/authors/120000004514"},"categories":[{"key":"global","name":"见闻首页"},{"key":"commodities","name":"商品"},{"key":"bonds","name":"债券"},{"key":"wscn-platform","name":"见闻"}],"columns":[],"comment_count":7,"comment_disabled":false,"content":"\u003cp\u003e中国5月进口好于预期，大宗商品多项进口创下新高。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e中国5月份进口额达2176.9亿美元，同比下降4.5%，降幅较4月份7.9%大幅收窄，并且远好于预期的下降8%。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e其中，铁矿砂、原油、天然气等大宗商品的进口贡献较大，大豆进口激增，5月量价均创下单月历史最高水平。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e分析指出，好于预期的进口数据表明，中国消费和内需正在复苏，未来内需发力或带动进口进一步改善。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e原油、铁矿砂、大豆进口创新高\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e分商品类别来看，原油5月进口表现突出，\u003c/strong\u003e进口量从4月份的1032万桶/日上升至相当于1211万桶/日，略低于3月份的1232万桶/日，这是自2020年6月以来的最高日进口量。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e强劲的表现一方面是由于炼油厂从定期维护中恢复，以及在夏季需求高峰期之前增加产能以增加库存；另一方面，随着经济的重新开放，内需逐步复苏。不过，鉴于近期经济数据喜忧参半，内需复苏的预期是否真正实现还有待观察。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e铁矿砂是另一个进口表现强劲的领域，\u003c/strong\u003e5月份进口了9618万吨，高于4月份的9044万吨和2022年同期的9252万吨。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e大豆进口量价均创下单月历史最高水平\u003c/strong\u003e，5月份大豆进口1202万吨，同比增长24.3%，环比增长65.6%，达到历史新高。据媒体报道，6月和7月进口大豆到港量也较大，预计短期内大豆进口量将保持在高位。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e不过，煤炭进口不平衡，煤炭进口量从4月的4068万吨降至3952万吨，但较去年5月的2055万吨增长近一倍。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e铜进口情况也好坏参半，5月进口未锻轧铜及铜材44.4万吨，同比下降4.6%，但环比有所增加。今年前五个月的进口量同比下降了11%，表明对工业金属的需求疲软。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e整体来看，大宗商品进口凸显出不平衡性，原油和铁矿砂的强势增长被铜和煤炭的疲软所抵消。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg class=\"wscnph\" src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/695a1529-ea68-4b2f-971e-fd58caedf439.png\" data-wscntype=\"image\" data-wscnh=\"369\" data-wscnw=\"674\" data-wscnsize=\"154774\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e内需发力，进口持续复苏可期\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e整体进口同比降幅优于预期，伴随国内扩内需及消费的逐渐复苏，进口有望持续改善。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e当下，全球需求走弱，国内出口承压，因此不少经济学家提议中国需要内需来带动经济增长，而5月进口数据好于预期则是一个内需向好的征兆。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e凯投宏观在一份研究报告中写道，\u003cstrong\u003e考虑到与去年相比基数较低以及进口价格的变化，经季节性因素调整后，5月份的进口环比增速为近18个月来新高。\u003c/strong\u003e随着中国重新开放的提振效应持续显现，预计未来的季度中国进口将进一步改善。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e光大银行金融市场部宏观研究员周茂华也指出，中国消费和内需稳步复苏，企业补库存逐步回暖等，有助于带动进口改善。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"color: #666; margin-bottom: 15px;\"\u003e风险提示及免责条款\u003c/div\u003e\n          \u003cdiv style=\"font-size: 12px;font-family: 黑体;color: #666;line-height: 20px;\"\u003e\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。\n          \u003c/div\u003e\n","content_short":"5月原油、铁矿砂进口表现突出，大豆量价均创下单月历史最高，煤炭、铜进口好坏参半。整体来看，原油和铁矿砂的强势增长被铜和煤炭的疲软所抵消。","custom_tag":"","display_time":1686186132,"funds":null,"has_transfer_audio":true,"id":3690614,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/956b3279-2f94-4ec1-8704-c578a0db668f.jpeg","height":525,"width":792,"size":232077},"images":[{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/956b3279-2f94-4ec1-8704-c578a0db668f.jpeg","height":525,"width":792,"size":232077}],"influence_score":0,"is_need_pay":false,"is_priced":false,"is_trial":false,"is_video":false,"layout":"wscn-layout","limited_time":0,"membership_uri":"","next":{"id":3690620,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/efbccc34-9f7f-4ebc-bbfd-fab86c29b7c5.jpeg","height":682,"width":1024,"size":130311},"title":"ChatGPT评价「文心一言」的2023年高考作文，结果出乎意料！","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3690620"},"pageviews":10359,"plates":[],"previous":{"id":3690616,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/f37f4146-0e68-47f2-910d-92fb4fdc4274.jpeg","height":768,"width":1024,"size":245221},"title":"美国万亿“抽水”要来了！华尔街担心利率、担心银行、担心整个市场","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3690616"},"related_topics":[],"show_like":true,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","subtitle":"","tags":[],"theme_group_map":null,"themes":[],"title":"惨淡的大宗商品终于等来好消息：5月中国进口复苏了！","unshow_content_short":false,"words_count":837}}