{"code":20000,"message":"OK","data":{"asset_tags":null,"audio":{"title":""},"audio_info":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/6846bc3c-b265-4fbd-97da-fc91b94f359b.mp3","start_time":"0.000000","duration":"90.324000","size":"271017"},"audio_uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/6846bc3c-b265-4fbd-97da-fc91b94f359b.mp3","author":{"article_count":5373,"author_kind":"default","avatar":"https://dn-wscn-avatar.qbox.me//59/4d/7c/-logo.png","bio":"","display_name":"李丹","editor_choice_articles":[],"followers_count":24388,"id":75,"is_followed":false,"uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/authors/75"},"categories":[{"key":"global","name":"见闻首页"},{"key":"us-shares","name":"港美股"},{"key":"wscn-platform","name":"见闻"}],"columns":[],"comment_count":1,"comment_disabled":false,"content":"\u003cp\u003e准确预测到最近美股大涨像融涨的高盛明星衍生品交易员Brian Garrett认为，在美股一再走高后，现在出现以往罕见的形势，应该歇手，不应再力图通过上涨获利。\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGarrett提醒，交易商持有未来几周将到期的6月看涨期权。这意味着，股市上涨时出现逼空，于是股市又有进一步上涨、再引发更多的逼空，产生典型的期权交易伽玛（gamma）逼空。\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e走到伽玛逼空这一步之后，虽然Garrett还是青睐除了科技股之外的一切交易，但总体而言，他认为，“这个市场到了稍作喘息的时候”，还称“几乎没有期权伽玛可能针对这种市场势头进行交易。”\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6月到期的标普期权图表显示，未平仓看涨期权合约已经大幅回升，现在留下非常清晰的上行定位。\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cimg class=\"wscnph\" src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/be4af2b2-991e-4893-aa5b-48da5e0d857c.png\" data-wscntype=\"image\" data-wscnh=\"297\" data-wscnw=\"617\" data-wscnsize=\"65319\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e标普指数波动和短期看涨期权的隐含交易量之间，已经成为正相关。\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cimg class=\"wscnph\" src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/ea4ace7b-0921-40d9-9a6f-80e2085e7995.png\" data-wscntype=\"image\" data-wscnh=\"341\" data-wscnw=\"745\" data-wscnsize=\"8307\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e问题是，从远期标普回报的角度看，现货交易量的相关性并非一直很大。\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cimg class=\"wscnph\" src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/293e70a2-c56b-4a16-831b-31a1b9d2cddd.png\" data-wscntype=\"image\" data-wscnh=\"332\" data-wscnw=\"720\" data-wscnsize=\"13070\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e另一种图表的展示可见，标普上行隐含波动率和标普指数本身同步上行是非常罕见的。\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cimg class=\"wscnph\" src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/c076f7a9-60b0-4fec-bd27-54925b8f1afe.png\" data-wscntype=\"image\" data-wscnh=\"337\" data-wscnw=\"724\" data-wscnsize=\"18549\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e让形势变得更复杂的是，高盛的模型GS-EQMOVE暗示，美股上行和下行的不对称性都被低估了。下图浅蓝色区域代表未来一个上涨或下跌5%的可能性，深蓝色代表期权暗示的涨跌5%可能性。\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cimg class=\"wscnph\" src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/757b76b2-a4fb-4b18-a77b-e3949d46cf53.png\" data-wscntype=\"image\" data-wscnh=\"430\" data-wscnw=\"695\" data-wscnsize=\"131904\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e从另一个角度看，标普现货相对美联储联邦基金利率处于过去三十年来的高位。\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cimg class=\"wscnph\" src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/51a0a289-e3c8-425a-875c-ac78af60f55a.png\" data-wscntype=\"image\" data-wscnh=\"340\" data-wscnw=\"730\" data-wscnsize=\"8322\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"color: #666; margin-bottom: 15px;\"\u003e风险提示及免责条款\u003c/div\u003e\n          \u003cdiv style=\"font-size: 12px;font-family: 黑体;color: #666;line-height: 20px;\"\u003e\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。\n          \u003c/div\u003e\n","content_short":"高盛交易员Brian Garrett认为，产生典型的期权交易伽玛逼空后，市场到了稍作喘息的时候。高盛的模型暗示，美股上行和下行的不对称性都被低估。","custom_tag":"","display_time":1686950429,"funds":null,"has_transfer_audio":true,"id":3691341,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/f7c79d18-5428-4ee3-8d9f-ba3e3150dba5.jpeg","height":667,"width":1000,"size":227377},"images":[{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/content_default_19.jpg","height":1662,"width":2500,"size":735020}],"influence_score":0,"is_need_pay":false,"is_priced":false,"is_trial":false,"is_video":false,"layout":"wscn-layout","limited_time":0,"membership_uri":"","next":{"id":3691326,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/cdb63514-9c09-49d0-8c90-ecb8abc72463.jpeg","height":535,"width":1024,"size":106732},"title":"加息50个基点的恐惧只维持了一天 市场再次进入降息和甚至退出QT的预期","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/premium/articles/3691326?layout=wscn-layout"},"pageviews":6500,"plates":[],"previous":{"id":3691336,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/c68660be-9aec-4375-8153-102fa90cde02.png","height":434,"width":686,"size":138565},"title":"收购顺丰丰网后，极兔速递赴港交所提交上市申请","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3691336"},"related_topics":[],"show_like":true,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","subtitle":"","tags":[],"theme_group_map":null,"themes":[],"title":"准确预测本轮美股大涨的高盛交易员：该歇歇了","unshow_content_short":false,"words_count":447}}