{"code":20000,"message":"OK","data":{"asset_tags":null,"audio":{"title":""},"audio_info":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/06a05da8-60d7-4f1b-9714-fc25fad09cf9.mp3","start_time":"0.000000","duration":"766.152000","size":"2298501"},"audio_uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/06a05da8-60d7-4f1b-9714-fc25fad09cf9.mp3","author":{"article_count":1655,"author_kind":"default","avatar":"https://dn-wscn-avatar.qbox.me//80/60/cf/imgl1928.jpg","bio":"","display_name":"潘凌飞","editor_choice_articles":[],"followers_count":6451,"id":65,"is_followed":false,"uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/authors/65"},"categories":[{"key":"crawler","name":"外部爬取"},{"key":"internal","name":"屏蔽外部"},{"key":"global","name":"见闻首页"},{"key":"wscn-platform","name":"见闻"}],"columns":[],"comment_count":1,"comment_disabled":false,"content":"\u003cp\u003e8月1日中国人民银行、国家外汇管理局召开2023年下半年工作会议提到[1]“指导商业银行依法有序调整存量个人住房贷款利率”。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: #930a09; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e央行再度定调按揭利率下调。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e我们认为本次央行工作会议中的表述是对存量按揭利率调整的政策导向的再度确\u003c/span\u003e认\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e。此前7月14日央行提到对于居民按揭贷款可“按照市场化、法治化原则，支持和鼓励商业银行与借款人自主协商变更合同约定，或者是新发放贷款置换原来的存量贷款”，根据我们的理解，“自主协商变更合同约定”意味着允许存量利率的加点通过银行与借款人的协商进行调整，“以新发放贷款置换原来的存量贷款”意味着允许按照较低的新发放贷款利率置换利率较高的存量按揭贷款，以上两条变化将使得银行存量按揭利率有望下调（参见《\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3MDMzMjg0MA==\u0026amp;mid=2247652554\u0026amp;idx=3\u0026amp;sn=8156a46adf5ce96871e7ce8dc469de3c\u0026amp;chksm=eade720ddda9fb1b293b0bee52e07c8ea60866c1e7603157548e3357bcc9b0172f4e8317a121\u0026amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-itemshowtype=\"11\" data-linktype=\"2\"\u003e存量按揭利率调整探讨\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e[2]》）。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: #930a09; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e存量按揭利率怎么调？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e尽管具体方案仍有不确定性，但我们根据央行的表述预计可能有以下特点：1）针对性下调存量按揭利率“加点”而非LPR基准利率普遍下调；2）“市场化原则”意味着各城市下调幅度可能并非“整齐划一”，而是以当地市场化形成的新发放利率为基准，即存量利率下调和用新发放贷款置换效果等同，对于新发放利率加点下调较多的三四线城市下调幅度更大，一线城市幅度相对较少；3）“以新发放贷款置换原来的存量贷款”意味着跨行转按揭（他行新发放贷款置换本行按揭）存在放开的可能性，但“依法”“有序”意味着放开过程可能较为谨慎，避免出现银行间过度竞争。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: #930a09; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e符合政治局会议导向。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e7月24日政治局会议提到“通过增加居民收入扩大消费”，存量按揭利率下调降低购房者利息负担、增加消费意愿，符合政策导向。当前银行存量按揭利率约为4.7%左右，假设存量按揭利率下调70bp降至新发放利率4.0%左右的水平，按照100万元按揭贷款、等额本息还款计算，我们估算可降低借款人月供约400元（约7%）；全行业每年可减少房贷利息约3000亿元，如果全部用于消费相当于2022年社会消费品零售额的0.7%；节约社会利息支出相当于LPR降息1.4次（14bp）。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: #930a09; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e对银行的影响测算。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e考虑到下调比例的不确定性，我们进行三种情景假设分析：1）假设30%存量按揭利率下调70bp，我们估算对银行2023年净息差/营业收入/净利润影响分别为-3bp/-1%/-3%（年化）；2）假设50%存量按揭利率下调70bp，我们估算对银行2023年净息差/营业收入/净利润影响分别为-5bp/-2%/-4%（年化）；3）假设100%存量按揭贷款的利率下调70bp，我们估算对银行2023年净息差/营业收入/净利润影响分别为-9bp/-4%/-9%（年化）。\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e2022年全行业/国有大行/股份行/区域行按揭贷款占比分别为21%/28%/17%/13%，存量按揭下调对按揭敞口比例较高的国有大行影响更大，对区域行影响较小。考虑到调整过程可能需要一定时间逐步落地，对银行收入的影响可能较为平缓。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: #930a09; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e提前还贷也有望减少。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e我们在今年2月的报告《\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3MDMzMjg0MA==\u0026amp;mid=2247617057\u0026amp;idx=3\u0026amp;sn=50cdf02ac136aebf954f6afb567cfdea\u0026amp;chksm=ead1ece6dda665f04f4a40c0b4377183226dde1aa695ef98906274342aab116acc7051fa3377\u0026amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-itemshowtype=\"11\" data-linktype=\"2\"\u003e按揭提前还贷影响几何？\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e[3]\u003c/span\u003e》中判断本次提前还贷是居民收入预期低迷以及投资回报率下降导致的去杠杆行为。按揭利率下调后，存量利率与金融产品收益率利差收窄，使用经营贷进行置换的套利空间也得到压缩，我们认为居民提前还贷有望减少。从会计角度看，居民提前还贷同时减少贷款和存款，降低银行贷款利息收入同时存款利息支出减少。我们假设存量按揭贷款利率与存款的利差为2.5ppt，分三种情形估算提前还贷减少对银行收入的正贡献：1）假设按揭早偿率降低1ppt，对银行净息差/营业收入/净利润贡献分别为+0.3bp/+0.1%/+0.3%（年化）；2）假设按揭早偿率降低3ppt，估算对银行净息差/营业收入/净利润贡献分别为+1bp/+0.4%/+1%（年化）；2）假设按揭早偿率降低5ppt，我们估算对银行净息差/营业收入/净利润影响分别为+2bp/+1%/+2%（年化）。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: #930a09; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e有必要下调存款利率进行对冲。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e考虑到为实现“2035目标”有必要保持银行合理的ROE和息差水平（参见《\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3MDMzMjg0MA==\u0026amp;mid=2247641733\u0026amp;idx=3\u0026amp;sn=c586f3c7068e01b7fc924fc04fcb58ae\u0026amp;chksm=eade4c42dda9c5543429703ca8aecf8acd7b004f3799f7e219f09d23a94b5ca83e2d36088bc2\u0026amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-itemshowtype=\"11\" data-linktype=\"2\"\u003e探索银行低估值之谜\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e[4]\u003c/span\u003e》），我们认为可考虑通过下调存款利率、央行结构性货币工具等方式对冲对银行利润的影响。我们在6月8日的报告《\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3MDMzMjg0MA==\u0026amp;mid=2247642187\u0026amp;idx=4\u0026amp;sn=425cef894a63698fc49577d3fa48c043\u0026amp;chksm=eade4a8cdda9c39ac600f276260ed4587e045d72e49f9e340174677221c323f90dd6ebb97de3\u0026amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-itemshowtype=\"11\" data-linktype=\"2\"\u003e存款还有多少降息空间？\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e[5]\u003c/span\u003e》中认为未来1-2年银行存款平均利率有约20bp的下调空间，不考虑存款活期化影响，估算存款利率下调能节约银行负债成本约 7000 亿元，正向贡献上市银行净息差/营收/净利润17bp/8%/16%。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: #930a09; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e新发放按揭利率下限有望下调。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e央行会上还提到\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e[6]\u003c/span\u003e“继续引导个人住房贷款利率和首付比例下行”，其中首付比例下调的提法与7月27日住建部的表述一致（参见《\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3MDMzMjg0MA==\u0026amp;mid=2247658466\u0026amp;idx=4\u0026amp;sn=7527d512946512242e5d09310874a258\u0026amp;chksm=eade8d25dda904333372f7e81502cf90b97739b18aeecdab260f8cab6e146527c865a1fd0b24\u0026amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-itemshowtype=\"11\" data-linktype=\"2\"\u003e地产贷款加杠杆窗口开启\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e[7]\u003c/span\u003e》），符合预期；“引导个人住房贷款利率下行”的提法超出预期。新发放按揭利率由“LPR+加点”决定，其中加点遵循2022年5月发布全国层面利率下限规定\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e[8]\u003c/span\u003e和2022年9月推出的部分城市可享受的阶段性放开利率下限的规定\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e[9]\u003c/span\u003e（2022年12月底改为长效机制\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e[10]\u003c/span\u003e），具体规定为：1）全国层面首套房按揭利率下限为LPR减20bp，二套房贷款利率下限为LPR加60bp；2）连续3个月房价环比和同比均下降的城市允许下调或取消当地首套房按揭利率下限。我们认为此次央行的新表述意味着如果LPR保持不变，为引导新发放按揭利率下行，新发放按揭利率下限的有关规定可能出现调整，具体形式可能为下调按揭利率的全国下限，或者放松部分城市取消利率下限的要求，扩大取消利率下限城市的范围。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: #930a09; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e存量按揭降息对银行负面影响有限。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e综合来看，尽管存量按揭利率下调对银行盈利可能造成一定影响，但提前还贷减少、后续可能的存款利率下调有望对负面影响进行充分对冲；存量按揭利率调整也体现出政策明确的稳增长导向，考虑到对宏观经济和消费的刺激作用，存量按揭利率下调对银行负面影响有限。考虑到此前市场对存量按揭降息存在一定预期、估值仍位于历史底部、后续稳增长政策有望形成支持，我们对银行股表现保持积极观点。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"width: 0.7em; height: 0.7em; margin-right: 5px; margin-top: 0.5em; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; background-color: #af8723; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px; color: #930a09;\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e风险\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 16px;\"\u003e政策落地不确定性，测算可能存在误差。 \u003cbr style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\" /\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：假设30%/50%/100%存量按揭利率下降70bp，我们测算对2023年银行净息差影响分别为-3bp/-5bp/-9bp\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF7tvCcibltsqwE2Q1Z861uQbx1cvNyCia0oeVEqPc11cTwyqHvxnlxKRYw/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.524074074074074\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e注：当前存量按揭贷款利率约为4.7%，新发放按揭贷款利率约4%，我们假设存量按揭利率下调0.7ppt。考虑到下调比例的不确定性，我们进行三种情景假设分析测算。\u003cbr style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\" /\u003e资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：假设按揭早偿率降低1ppt/3ppt/5ppt，我们测算提前还贷减少对2023年银行净息差影响分别为+0.3bp/+1bp/+2bp\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF7I4ppGXY1O09ibbIy4UKA9zqpNtHYebw8ogwSd3v3aFnN6oEicGEh6TzQ/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.5\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e注：从会计角度看，居民提前还贷同时减少贷款和存款，降低银行贷款利息收入同时存款利息支出减少。我们假设存量按揭贷款利率与存款的利差为2.5ppt。考虑到提前还贷减少规模的不确定性，我们进行三种情景假设分析测算。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：2018-2021年按揭贷款相比基准利率上浮最高约100bp\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF7ZziaaD5SicibOlmicGRKyvJWZ8Rib0gViaLZhFdhGJRjoPG9TmKoUCMnhUJg/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.6324074074074074\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e资料来源：中国人民银行，贝壳研究院，Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：居民提前还贷或由于金融资产回报率下降，低于存量按揭利率\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF7oNUnpss1tIG3sU0lU1zbibKrmNHcTSeJWuO0bPvA8EAtLTxuuNqXU5A/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.6462962962962963\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e注：存量按揭利率使用上市银行披露数据估算\u003cbr style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\" /\u003e资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：历史上居民提前还贷主要由于二手房交易，而本轮可能由于居民资产配置行为\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF7bicpic81tCpsffw3HevjM81odHs2iccEa9GRj2VFKH3XJcglfDInvtBDw/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.5925925925925926\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：我们测算存量按揭利率下降70bp能够降低月供约7%\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF77ibwkg42tk4OurMtcV8v1ES5pZQo3GgpY0wT6hlSf9K3icHN8Lf1fpMA/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.5405128205128205\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"975\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e注：此处假设基于市场调研情况，月供降低幅度测算基于假设情境，实际情况可能有差异\u003cbr style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\" /\u003e资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：4月RMBS早偿率为2011年以来最高水平，5~6月回落\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF7hiazkFQicLpJPVNwiaLjkhubicCcibLiaVqFXichGED2Bkdkic1mjawee9PI0w/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.6\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：2021年下半年以来按揭发放-偿还剪刀差收窄，导致按揭净减少\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF7NOOfhLQspd6S5uHm3cQYz1X0iayQ2O3gWmdu2BRbOgOKTkzeQ261mkg/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.6083333333333333\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e注：按揭发放和还贷规模根据住房销售、平均首付比例、按揭贷款余额变动等数据估算\u003cbr style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\" /\u003e资料来源：国家统计局，人民银行，贝壳研究院，Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：我们估算2022年还贷规模较2021年有所增加\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF7ibn0Ft3vyzrJ47FBBY5059WXoDoPPxlta3xJ6pSsHJU2jTaiaUshKJXw/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.6\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e注：按揭还贷规模根据住房销售额（包括二手房）、平均首付比例、按揭贷款余额变动等数据估算，仅供参考\u003cbr style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\" /\u003e资料来源：国家统计局，人民银行，贝壳研究院，Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：2020年3月-2022年4月新发放按揭和一般贷款利率出现倒挂\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF72bY5oaTDf5uXXt5LItMPWpibd6Ku7kib50lBEz2uLVTuiaHccnf6EJeng/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.6\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e注：按揭还贷规模根据住房销售额（包括二手房）、平均首付比例、按揭贷款余额变动等数据估算，仅供参考\u003cbr style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\" /\u003e资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：2020年以来按揭还贷增加伴随经营贷增量上升，可能与居民按揭置换经营贷有关\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF7BfO8MmveiblVoPwL0ibl8kTqQUZBOdTf5A0G1I5AJb9bkEn8XbsRxG5g/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.600925925925926\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e注：按揭还贷规模根据住房销售额（包括二手房）、平均首付比例、按揭贷款余额变动等数据估算\u003cbr style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\" /\u003e资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：日本在上世纪80和90年代也出现过居民按揭提前偿还率上升\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF7OWDIl3dz24copJXiccgRffMBmN3QhtXSg7z8klsYXyECckZ6sic2sibow/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.6083333333333333\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e注：我们假设日本按揭正常偿还率为8%\u003cbr style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\" /\u003e资料来源：Wind，CEIC，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：美国按揭利率下降幅度较大时，居民转按揭增加\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF7vx9k5c1dWpVP5P89WO8iaegYhjEARRibfh2E4AUvSZOBTxu2helzqicAw/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.6\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e注：再融资指数以1990年3月16日为100计算\u003cbr style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\" /\u003e资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：按揭贷款利率已至历史低位，首付比例仍有下降空间\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF7cia7tgnXicbg2nmdTVLKxEn2tZ5DuLGmtdPOK0xrOpr9gSabbbMCVmKw/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.5935185185185186\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e注：平均首付比例为估算所有购房者平均，包括未使用贷款的购房者\u003cbr style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\" /\u003e资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：一线城市房价同比也进入负增长区间\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF7FvxbMiau5tLMgxVTibyFXsAV3iaJdxJiciaKZTNVtxIhManiaUR4rxZ18MqA/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.612037037037037\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e图表：2022年上市银行按揭贷款增速和占比\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cimg class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto !important;\" src=\"https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfxR3ib53vicHWNt3YFmfxGyF71TKhBsoRxGBEkyuCm9ZwtmtX8sXQP9BfNGqbqtmPdetibFiaAyyDuWqA/640?wx_fmt=png\" data-ratio=\"0.5842592592592593\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-w=\"1080\" /\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"display: inline-block; width: 100%; height: 20px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: 100% 100%; background-attachment: scroll; background-image: url('https://mmbiz-qpic.wscn.net/sz_mmbiz_png/rkcmV2hqfqQdgWT7PA9Ge9YYeSq9gcJISJsnfgSjgxibk8Q4dqR120eWibvQicqJiboNQplunbwM58r4ZQR7KCeA2Q/640?wx_fmt=png'); box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"word-break: break-all; white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: #808080;\"\u003e本文作者：中金公司林英奇团队，来源：\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e\u003ca style=\"color: #1478f0;\" href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3MDMzMjg0MA==\u0026amp;mid=2247659065\u0026amp;idx=4\u0026amp;sn=458c286d9c29fa92a85237e35814e870\u0026amp;chksm=eade88fedda901e8a9b1d5c35cc6c83447d415fe0833509c3fe3d7577ada1e52536ecd73625e\u0026amp;scene=0\u0026amp;xtrack=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"\u003e中金点睛\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: #808080;\"\u003e(ID:CICC_Perspective)，原文标题：《存量按揭利率怎么调？》\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e分析员 林英奇 SAC 执证编号：S0080521090006 SFC CE Ref：BGP853\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e联系人 许鸿明 SAC 执证编号：S0080121080063\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e分析员 周基明 SAC 执证编号：S0080521090005 SFC CE Ref：BTM336\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e分析员 张帅帅 SAC 执证编号：S0080516060001 SFC CE Ref：BHQ055\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"color: #e8e8e8; font-size: 18px; box-sizing: border-box;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\"color: #8d9bad;\"\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"color: #666; margin-bottom: 15px;\"\u003e风险提示及免责条款\u003c/div\u003e\n          \u003cdiv style=\"font-size: 12px;font-family: 黑体;color: #666;line-height: 20px;\"\u003e\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。\n          \u003c/div\u003e\n","content_short":"中金认为：1、可能针对性下调存量按揭利率“加点”而非LPR基准利率普遍下调，2、三四线城市下调幅度更大，一线城市幅度相对较少，3、可能放开跨行转按揭。","custom_tag":"","display_time":1690936484,"funds":null,"has_transfer_audio":true,"id":3694615,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/42ccf2e0-6436-478d-be2c-986d271edb1d.jpeg","height":528,"width":792,"size":257747},"images":[{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/content_default_12.jpg","height":1667,"width":2500,"size":2289493}],"influence_score":0,"is_need_pay":false,"is_priced":false,"is_trial":false,"is_video":false,"layout":"wscn-layout","limited_time":0,"membership_uri":"","next":{"id":3694610,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/18c4dd60-0a06-458e-b4a7-d9a4fd846a40.jpeg","height":768,"width":1024,"size":84418},"title":"8.2会员早报：美国职位空缺、离职率均创两年多新低 美国丧失AAA顶级评级","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/premium/articles/3694610?layout=wscn-layout"},"pageviews":7596,"plates":[],"previous":{"id":3694475,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/0704ece6-a6aa-4bf6-96c2-080e3dc36e55.jpeg","height":575,"width":1024,"size":100208},"title":"物价大涨！就业火热！2023美国之行的见闻与思考【袁骏说21】","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/premium/articles/3694475?layout=wscn-layout"},"related_topics":[],"show_like":true,"source_name":"中金公司林英奇团队","source_uri":"","subtitle":"","tags":[],"theme_group_map":null,"themes":[],"title":"存量按揭利率怎么调？","unshow_content_short":true,"words_count":3207}}